Monday, July 24, 2017

UBI March Should Target Po White Trash”V.

 Maybe Ubi March is targeting the wrong people with their urban marches.   Maybe they should be holding rallies in the rural areas which would benefit both from the outside income and poor white flight. And do it before trump figures out how to protect his base.  (a WGBI)  Artists, craft people, and others subsisting in an urban area would take the money and run. Whites would run to their rural roots, I don’t know about ethnic and black communities, but I suspect they would stay put and build their communities. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/04/opinion/sunday/trump-arkansas.html

 I am typing this in Nowheresville OR.  All the towns we drove through were much the same. The only active businesses were subsistence tourist services with religious tracts in every restroom.  “What is the meaning of life?” Don’t look for it here on earth, bro, there ain’t any. Find God, Find Meaning.

 Some tourist services do well at least by local standards, but I suspect that many of those are white flight that take advantage of low local wage standards to build a tourist trap.  With UBI those low wages will remain with UBI as local people will compete for available work as before before and                                                  People like to utilize their skills.  But those low wages are no longer subsistence as that is taken care of by the UBI.      

Top 5th Percentile Mobility for the Rich and the Poor.


Stop Pretending You're Not Rich 
New York Times

 The difference between the rich and the poor in the top 19% (excluding the 1%.) collectively referred to in some circles as "Gentry" as in gentrification is significant in ways the above piece totally ignores and significantly affects the mobility of the next 30%. The meritocracy Reeves sneers at is in fact a reality for the poor getting into the Gentry and for the top school-top job nuveau Gentry and is probably a major cause of the rich losing their place there. The top fifth does not rule. They do protect their privilege with the help of those who do. There are major holes in their safety net in both directions. 

 Poor by my definition is an attitude not an amount of income. The poor distinguish between wants and needs and buy wants only when they can afford them from current excess resources. They retain that attitude even when they make it into the Gentry.  Many of the Gentry were poor once, and still live like it other than eating better. They still save something for the next meal that might not be as good. Depression era parents are classic examples for the new gentry. I grew up in a house where "Hide-a-bed Hash" was generic for saving for a luxury purchase.  That Gentry is smart poor people with decent jobs who watch their expenditures, chose their homes carefully and use their mortgage and tax deductions, 401ks, IRAs, and 529s to provide for their future. They may have a low end status car but they drive it to COSTCO from their good school neighborhood which they got to by buying before the kids were school age into a gentrifying neighborhood with bad schools; trading up with low end purchases in upcoming neighborhoods; and building equity. Cheap home prepared meals are their main nourishment (everybody cooks), and thrift stores and their closet their source of clothes. Entertainment is online, TV, reading and home grown music, with music lessons the only luxury. 

 Rich people buy what they want where they want to buy without regard to resources at any income level.  They generally have a relatively high debt to income ratio, and are frequently a couple of paychecks or a major financial setback away from losing their place in the Gentry.   

 I would suggest that your "different Gentry" ie. the good school-good job Gentry is a relatively small part of the Gentry we are talking about.   They grew up feeling rich even though their parents are probably in the poor Gentry or even in the achieving poor in next 30%. This privilege is reinforced especially in the top schools where they mingle as equals with rich kids and the good job gives them the income level to buy directly into the Gentry particularly when both partners (generic) work at high level jobs as most do early in their careers. The Mrs. degree is fairly rare in the top colleges as only driven achievers can get past the glass ceiling in the admissions department.   

  The mortgage deduction provides minimal tax relief for the rich but is a major source of mobility for the working poor. A maxed out mortgage is a debt trap for the rich who can't maintain a rich person's income level as they believe they can.   A 1.1 million dollar house with a million dollar mortgage works only if income stays above $150K. That same house with a conforming mortgage works at $60K. Flipped up several times from a house in a poor but stable neighborhood. This flip up is usually primarily for schools, but works even better for the childless as public school taxes are low in high end developments where private schools are the norm for families with children. At $60K a conforming mortgage deduction reduces taxes significantly. Even if mortgage insurance is needed for the first house.


  If you are at $150K that Yale legacy preference Reeves toots is worth less than a HS All American in any sport or talent and is worth even less if the kid barely meets the academic threshold. Education is the great equalizer in the top 19% and many of the top schools are "need blind" for admissions so that any student qualifying, admittedly a tiny percent of any population, can qualify for entry into the 19% regardless of family income if the field of study is chosen carefully. Only the rich can afford worthless majors. 

Sunday, July 23, 2017

Providing for a Sustainable Lower Class in an Economy of Abundance


 A Universal Basic income should be provided for all adults, but not children, which should be designed to cover basic housing, food and recreation needs for a family of 3 split between two adults.

  Jobs are a necessary part of a sustainable lower class. There are many semi-skilled jobs where human interaction is a necessary part of the job: servers, basic care workers, custodians, etc. These jobs would pay enough to justify leaving home and accept the responsibility of showing up for work.  The wage would be incremental to the UBI and thus affordable to employers.  Probably on the order of the current minimum wage.  A 36 hr. work week, 4 10 hour days with breaks would become standard.  Parents could alternate shifts, or work days to provide for parenting needs, or one parent could choose basic income instead of work. 

 Upward mobility would be provided by supervisory positions and skilled work as the employee qualifies for them.  The "minimum acceptable wage" would establish a wage floor and time commitment for all productive work. Any skilled job would be paid at competitive rates

  Medical care, education, and basic transportation needs should be part of package for both basic income and employed citizens. Medical care would be on the HMO model with a small copay for illness or injury to encourage a healthy lifestyle. Basic transportation needs would be met by no cost automated ride share in urban areas, and low cost interurban Hyperloop™.

Taxation could be income based if politically necessary, but ideally all taxes would be consumption based with a progressive value added tax.

UBI and Creators

TL;DR Want to create something? UBI is your trust fund.

Creativity is a fundamental drive for humans once they get beyond subsistence.  Cave people drew on the walls of the cave, ordinary pots and pans became works of art in ancient and indigenous cultures.  The key to success for an artisan or an entrepreneur is being able to fail without consequences to one's family.  A trust fund is the traditional back up for them, but that limits the pool of creative and risk taking to rich people.  Imagine the creative surge if anyone with a dream could pursue it.  

UBI vs Welfare

TL;DR  Welfare doesn't work? UBI helps poor communities without huge bureaucratic costs.

If everyone had an adequate but not comfortable living stipend, for example basic Social Security for all adults, the current administrative hassles of welfare and unemployment programs could be eliminated.   Checks would arrive monthly whether the person needed them or not.  Those with income would pay into the SS trust on all income over the stipend, those without other income for whatever reason would stimulate jobs in their communities which would pay into the fund. 

Friday, July 21, 2017

Suggested Life Celebration for J'Carlin


N.B. This post is referenced as part of my Advanced Directive which has not been needed yet (8/22/23.)  It was a hurry-up job under the gun of some grim medical procedures.  Not surviving was a real possibility and I almost didn’t.  However I beat the odds and am still around stirring things up as possible.
Any confusion as to time frame of the celebration is regretted.  For the moment at some time in the future:
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As people gather play the Second movement of Bruch's third violin concerto (Arcado by preference) to include sister Janet as part of the celebration.  Encourage the who, what composer, etc speculation. No spoilers from those in the know.  After the third movement resolves the second, someone should tell the story of Janet and I having to leave home frustrated at that point and Janet calling her friend at the radio station for the ID of the out of print vinyl.  J'Carlin kept a long vigil till the CD set we just listened to was reissued ADD.

No podium speeches, but encourage everyone to tell a neighbor a story about J'Carlin that was important for them.  

After a bit of chatter have some music breaks including the Intuit and Kyrie from the Faure Requiem, the Bogoroditse from Rachmaninoff Vespers, and "Don't Stand by my Grave and Weep" from Rob Paterson's Eternal Reflections  If a choir I have been a member of would like to organize a celebratory group for the Faure and Rachmaninoff I would request that the usual gig fee be paid to the director and accompanist.  If Kevin and Alex would sing Amazing Grace for their usual gig fee it would be nice.   A reading from "Thinking on the blue roads" would be nice.  http://jcarlinbl.blogspot.com/  Kevin might read his post #4 from https://jcarlinsv.blogspot.com/2015/11/one-person-religion.html  he speaks for both of us.  Order and breaks ad lib.

When the food and drinks start someone should start a musical wine glass chorus in Celebration of Dorothy's 80th.  That should get enough stories started to make everyone enjoy the party.

I would like to continue Janet's tradition of distributing my compost to people who will take them to meaningful places and compost a wildflower.  Including the Mist trail at Yosemite. If possible near  a small bonfire in the Desolation Wilderness and the John Muir Trail. Also some dropped into the Mississippi from a bridge in Minneapolis to join Mom, Dad Janet, and anyone else who might care to join us.  

In lieu of flowers, a donation to any park conservancy, Redwood preservation non-profit,  or open space preserve would be appreciated.

A note on the "J'"  Until I left home for college I was nicknamed Joe which I never appreciated.  At Stanford I never mentioned the nickname and became known by my birth name.  Relatives and friends who knew me before tried diligently to change, but some version of Joe always came first.  Jo-Carlin, Je-Carlin, or J-Carlin.  Eventually I adopted J'Carlin as a nom-de-plume to protect my politically correct business persona. 


Note: Blog is CC3 If anyone wants to us this as a template for a Life Celebration modify at will.